On our website, we often use the term "prediction value." We emphasize this term because of the Value Betting strategy, which is mathematically profitable.
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What is a value bet
A value bet is a bet where the actual probability of the outcome is higher than the bookmaker's odds. That is, the actual odds are lower than the bookmaker's. Mathematically, if every bet is value, the bet will be profitable over the long run.
Explanation in simple language and with an example, in two minutes
Imagine you're playing a simple game against your opponent: just flipping a coin. Here are the detailed rules:
The coin lands heads half the time and tails half the time. The probability is 50/50
If the coin lands heads up, you give your opponent 1 ruble, if tails up, he gives you 1 ruble.
Your starting bank is one million rubles.
Question: who will have the most money after a million throws?
Answer: No one. Everyone will have roughly a million rubles, just like at the beginning. Because the coin will land heads half the time and tails the other half. You and your opponent have an equal chance of winning each round! The tosses are non-value, so no one can win!
Now let's change just one rule a little
NEW! If the coin lands heads up, you give your opponent 10 kopecks; if tails up, he gives you 1 ruble
Same question: who will have the most money after a million throws?
Answer: You do! The coin still lands 50/50, but you win more money on the winning toss than your opponent. For you, the tosses are boulders, but for him, they aren't!
Let's change the conditions of the original problem again
NEW! We have a tricky coin. It lands heads 10% of the time and tails 90% of the time
Just like in the first case! If the coin lands heads up, you give your opponent 1 ruble, if tails up, he gives you 1 ruble
Same question: who will have the most money after a million throws?
Answer: You! After all, the coin still falls 10/90, and only one time out of 10 does your opponent win a ruble, while you win the other 9. For you, the throws are boulders, but for him, they aren't!
To summarize: value is when the probability of winning is higher than the probability of losing by a greater percentage than the losses from losing are higher than the income from winning. With the same probability of winning or losing, the profit should be greater than the loss. With the same profit and loss, the probability of winning should be greater than the probability of losing. The actual odds should be lower than the bookmaker's odds.
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As the example above applies to bets
In the example above, we looked at a coin-flipping game. But how do we translate this to betting? It's very simple!
For each match, the bookmaker provides odds. These can be converted into probability using the formula p = 1/k
Let's assume that we know the actual probability of entry
Let's imagine a similar game: We take all bets where the bookmaker's odds are 40%, while the actual odds are 50%. That is, the bookmaker's odds are 2.5, while the actual odds are 2. It's like a coin flip: it actually lands as we want it to 50% of the time, but the reward is 1.5 rubles for a 1 ruble investment (we bet 1 ruble, win 2.5, or a net gain of 1.5 rubles)! Who has more money after a million flips?
Value Betting Strategy
This strategy involves always placing value bets. Mathematically, a large number of value bets will always result in a positive outcome (see the example above; you can expand on it to clearly see why). Moreover, unlike arbitrage betting, this strategy is completely legal with bookmakers and cannot be tracked, as the bookmaker doesn't know how you determine the value of a bet. This is precisely why this strategy is valued by professional forecasters.
If that's true, why doesn't everyone just place value bets and win?
Because it's impossible to determine the actual probability of a bet's success with absolute precision. There's no algorithm in the world that can take into account all the factors at play. However, it's possible to determine an approximate probability.
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To determine value, two probabilities are needed
To determine whether a bet is a value bet, you need to compare the actual probability with the probability offered by the bookmaker. Let's look at how to calculate them.
Bookmaker's odds. It's all very simple: it's calculated from the odds using the formula p = 1/k, meaning if the odds are 2, the probability is 1/2 = 0.5, or 50%. Important caveat! The bookmaker always includes a margin, on average between 3 and 12%, meaning if the odds are 2, the actual probability is 47% or lower
Real probability. It can't be calculated precisely, but it can be roughly estimated. It's precisely the most accurate assessment of the actual probability that constitutes the bulk of the work when using the Value Betting strategy.
If there was a method to super accurately determine the true probability of a hit, the Value Betting strategy would break sports betting and it wouldn't exist
Methods for calculating real probability
Because it's impossible to determine the actual probability of a bet's success with absolute precision. There's no algorithm in the world that can take into account all the factors at play. However, it's possible to determine an approximate probability
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Statistical
You can look at teams and referees' previous matches and calculate the probability of a particular outcome occurring previously. This is a classic method, but it only takes statistical data into account. Suitable tools:
Team and referee ratings by championship (more than 20 indicators) to search for “more” and “less”
Prematch statistics based on previous games of teams and referees (goals, cards, corners, fouls and 20 more indicators)
Pre-match statistics for head-to-head matches teams (goals, cards, corners, fouls and 20 other indicators)
Championship and referee statistics (goals, cards, corners, fouls and 20 more indicators)
Checking the forecast value according to team and referee statistics
Search for match trends using 10 indicators and statistics
Team and referee trends using 10 indicators and statistics
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Machine Learning and AI
Advanced data analysis algorithms, both mathematical and based on artificial intelligence
ML predictions for a match based on machine learning, taking into account the bookmaker's line
ML daily predictions for fast value search based on machine learning